Ville Satopää

Forecasting and predictions statistician.


Thinkers50 Radar Class of 2024.


A Thai Boxing aficionado.


Received his International Baccalaureate from The Mahindra United World College of India.


An applied Bayesian statistician, Ville’s research explores different areas of forecasting: judgemental and statistical forecasting, modeling crowdsourced predictions, combining and evaluating different predictions, and information elicitation. It involves developing general theory and methodology but also specific projects that analyse real-world data, such as hospital mortality rates, domestic tourism, and urban crime. His research has been acknowledged by various awards, including winning the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science Student Paper Competition in 2015, being selected as a runner-up for Decision Analysis Society (DAS) 2020 Student Paper Award, and as a finalist for the Best Paper Award by the 2020 INFORMS Workshop on Data Mining and Decision Analytics.


Associate professor of technology and operations management at INSEAD, Ville received his PhD and MA in statistics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and BAs in computer science and mathematics from Williams College, USA. He has received the Dean’s Commendation for Excellence in Teaching multiple times and has also won the Best Teacher Award in the MBA program at INSEAD. His research papers have been published in top statistical, management, and field journals, including the Journal of American Statistical Association, Management Science and the International Journal of Forecasting


Making the Crowd Wiser’ (as featured in The New York Times, INSEAD Knowledge, August 2020); ‘The Secret Ingredients of “Superforecasting”’ (INSEAD Knowledge, November 2019); ‘Disrupting business models is not enough. We need tech innovation too’ (World Economic Forum, March 2018); ‘Warning: Do Not Just Average Predictions” (INSEAD Knowledge, July 2017); ‘After the surprise of 2016, here’s how pollsters can do better in predicting election results’ (The Washington Post, May 2017); ‘Improving the Accuracy of Hospital Rankings’ (INSEAD Knowledge, May 2017).


Media picks



Want Better Forecasting? Silence the Noise


In an era of misinformation, we need the tools for accurate forecasting more than ever and Ville is providing them.”

Stuart Crainer & Des Dearlove, Thinkers50

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